Investors witnessed another volatile week during June 18 - 22, with the bears and the bulls showing equal prowess to dominate Dalal Street. However, the latter emerged victorious, thanks to brisk buying in financials and pharma counters. Bajaj Finance on Friday surpassed Axis Bank in market value for the first time. This apart, trade war concerns and a falling rupee were the major headwinds that restrained the market from coming out of range.
Please see notes to Table I. There are upside risks to the baseline with the synchronised cyclical rebound, revival of global trade and easy financing conditions reinforcing each other. If global growth turns out to be 50 bps over the baseline, it could strengthen domestic growth by 20 bps above the baseline and raise domestic inflation by around 10 bps.
On the other hand, protectionist policies, continuing uncertainty associated with the pace and timing of normalisation of monetary policy in the US and other systemic central banks, and higher crude oil prices pose downside risks to global demand.
|What is Sensex? How is it calculated? | Basics of Share Market||The spice trade between India and Europe was the main catalyst for the Age of Discovery.|
There remains uncertainty, however, about the magnitude and timing of implementation of the HRA award by the state governments for their employees and these are, therefore, not included in the baseline inflation path. Assuming that all state governments implement increases in pay and allowances of the same order as the central government during the course ofCPI inflation could turn out to be around bps above the baseline on account of the direct statistical effect of higher HRAs, with additional indirect effects emanating from higher demand and increase in inflation expectations.
As noted earlier, monetary policy should look through the direct statistical effects, while being vigilant about indirect effects working through inflation expectations. Changing market perceptions about the pace and timing of monetary policy normalisation in the US, along with domestic inflation, fiscal slippage and current account balance developments, have been important factors driving exchange rate movements in the recent period and are likely to remain so in the near-term.
With economic activity gathering pace in the euro area, uncertainty surrounding normalisation plans of the European Central Bank is likely to add to financial market volatility.
The US macroeconomic policy mix — easy fiscal policy in an environment when monetary accommodation is being withdrawn — can accentuate market volatility. Assuming a depreciation of the Indian rupee by around 5 per cent relative to the baseline, inflation could edge higher by around 20 bps and the boost to net exports could increase growth by around 15 bps.
On the other hand, with growth picking up in recent months, sound domestic fundamentals and the various initiatives taken by the Government to boost investment, India may continue to be an attractive destination for foreign investment, which could put upward pressures on the currency. An appreciation of the Indian rupee by 5 per cent in this scenario could soften inflation by around 20 bps and reduce growth by around 15 bps in Given the sensitivity of the agricultural sector to rainfall conditions, the actual growth and inflation dynamics would critically depend on the progress of the monsoon.
A deficient monsoon could lower overall GDP growth by around bps in Furthermore, the Union Budget has proposed revised guidelines for arriving at the MSPs for kharif crops, although the details are not yet fully available.
If the monsoon is deficient and the budget proposals on MSPs lead to higher food prices, headline inflation could rise above the baseline by around 80 bps.
An empirical assessment presented in the MPR of October suggests that: Given the present levels of the combined centre and states fiscal deficit, an increase in the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio by bps could lead to an increase of about 50 bps in inflation.
Apart from its direct impact on inflation, fiscal slippage has broader macro-financial implications, notably on economy-wide costs of borrowing which have already started to rise. These may feed into inflation and elevate it further.
impact on theIndian BSE 30 Index. Keywords: BSE Sensex, macroeconomic variables, stock prices, OLS method, Granger Causality test I. Introduction A place where purchasers and vendors exchange securities at a price in a secondary market is referred to as Stock Exchange. Economics part4 - Free download as PDF File .pdf), Text File .txt) or read online for free. SENSEX The SENSEX-(or SENSitve indEX) was introduced by the Bombay stock exchange on January 1 It is one of the prominent stock market.
Rural and infrastructure sectors are identified as thrust areas in the Union Budget, which could energise aggregate demand. With the acceleration in global trade, the Indian economy could benefit from buoyant external demand.
In addition to the usual monsoon related uncertainty, inflation faces upside risks from a variety of other sources, especially due to the oil prices, the fiscal slippage, and the statistical effect from the expected increases in HRAs by the state governments, The purely direct statistical impact of the HRA adjustment on CPI will be looked through while formulating monetary policy.
Uncertainty over the pace and timing of monetary policy normalisation by the systemic central banks in advanced economies, protectionist tendencies and fears of a trade war pose significant risks to the baseline inflation and growth paths.
Prices and Costs Consumer price inflation rose sharply in Q3: It moderated somewhat in Q4 on a delayed seasonal easing of prices of vegetables.
Industrial input costs increased through H2: Wage pressures have remained moderate in both the organised and rural sectors. The course of consumer price index CPI inflation in Q3 was significantly influenced by house rent allowance HRA increase for central government employees from Julyfollowing the recommendations of the 7th central pay commission CPC.However, the latter emerged victorious, thanks to brisk buying in financials and pharma counters.
The S&P BSE Sensex advanced points, or per cent, to end the week at 35, while the share Nifty pack gained just 4 points, or per cent, to settle at 10, An Investigation of the Macroeconomic Factors Bombay Stock Exchange, Macroeconomic WPI and Prices of Gold on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex.
Inflation & BSE sensex annual return from to As we can see the sensex return Understanding how macro economic factors impact equity returns;. persisting in India between macroeconomic variables, namely, Wholesale Price index (WPI), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), exchange rate (Rs./US$), Call Money Rate (CMR) and Indian stock markets in the form of BSE SENSEX (B-SENSEX) by using monthly data that span from April, to March, impact of select macro economic factors on the performance of small and mid cap Indices that are proxied by BSE SENSEX and a set of macroeconomic variables.
Volatile movements based on current political scenario involving elections, along with any downside on GDP growth are big headwinds for the market, Naveen Kulkarni, Head of .